Mathematical model on Covid-19 transmission with absence and presence of second dose of vaccination in Turkey

Abstract

In this paper, we have explored COVID-19 transmission dynamics with vaccination drive in Turkey. The present study elaborates the impact of vaccination drives to prevent infection transmission among Turkish people. The proposed model is equipped with seven compartments which is mainly focused on the impacts of vaccination drives. The two years real cumulative data of infected Turkish individuals, from 1 January, 2022 to 31 December, 2023, is taken for best data fit with the model which emphasizes the accuracy of our model. The numerical solution provides the better insights which is in the favour of our model compartments. We have estimated the parameters involved in model formulation. The impact of effective transmission rate, both first and second dose of vaccination rates on individuals have been analysed. A comparative study of presence and absence of double dose of vaccination drive emphasizes the importance of vaccination drive to cure the individuals. The observed results demonstrate that the model is suitable for prediction of COVID-19 infection, and emphasize how the second dose of vaccination can be an unavoidable tool to reduce the infection among the individuals. Further, residual, sensitivity analysis, disease free equilibrium, local stability, basic reproduction number, positivity, and boundedness of the model are analysed. These pivotal information leads us to unravel the complexity of the disease. Our model indicates that both vaccination drives are essential to reduce the disease transmission among the individuals and provide a great support to immune system in the combat of current infection. The reduction in observed basic reproduction number dictates the removal of infection in near future.