Analysis of Honey Production and Honey Yield per Beehive in Türkiye Using an ARIMAX Model in the Context of Climate Change

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between climate conditions and beekeeping perfor-mance in Türkiye using annual data for the 1991–2022 period. Total honey production, total number of hives, honey yield per hive, and annual average temperature are analysed within a time series framework. Stationarity is assessed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, and the results indicate that all variables become stationary af-ter first differencing. Based on information criteria, ARIMA(0,1,1) is selected for total honey production and ARIMA(2,1,0) for honey yield per hive. These baseline specifications are then extended to ARIMAX models by including annual average temperature as an exoge-nous variable. The findings show that temperature has a negative but weak and only mar-ginally significant association with total honey production. In contrast, temperature has a negative and statistically significant effect on honey yield per hive, suggesting that productivity is more sensitive to climatic pressures than aggregate production levels. Overall, the results indicate that focusing solely on total production may understate cli-mate-related impacts in beekeeping, while yield-based indicators provide a clearer signal of environmental stress.